Ahantu haherutse gukurura abantu mu mashini zihindura ingufu ziciriritse n’izikoresha ingufu nyinshi ku isi (2025-2026)

1. Kuzamura Ibipimo Ngenderwaho byo Gukoresha Ingufu mu Kuzigama no Guhindura Ibidukikije: Guhindura Ingufu mu Nzu Nshya nk'Ishingiro

Ku isi yose, ibisabwa kugira ngo ingufu zikore neza mu buryo buciriritse no mu Transformateur y'amashanyarazi menshis zirimo kwihuta, kandi kutagira amahame ngenderwaho yo gukoresha ingufu ku ruhande rushya rwo gutanga ingufu byabaye ikibazo gikomeye mu myaka ya vuba aha. Muri Mata 2024, Ubushinwa bwasohoye verisiyo nshya y’agaciro ntarengwa k’ingufu n’ibiciro byo gukoresha ingufu neza ku bahindura ingufu (GB20052-2024), yashyizwe mu bikorwa ku mugaragaro muri Gashyantare 2025. Ku nshuro ya mbere, iyi ngenderwaho ikubiyemo transformateur za 6kV-66kV zo gutanga ingufu nshya (photovoltaic, umuyaga, kubika ingufu) mu mabwiriza agenga gukoresha ingufu neza, akubiyemo ibintu by’ingenzi bijyanye no guhuza ingufu nshya (urugero, transformateur za 35kV ziterwa na peteroli/zo mu bwoko bwumye zirenga 95% by’ikoreshwa mu rwego rushya rw’ingufu).

Intego nyamukuru yo kuvugurura ibipimo ngenderwaho ni ukugabanya igihombo gituruka ku ngufu nshya. Dufashe urugero rwa transformateur za 35kV zikoreshwa mu gutera peteroli, igihombo gishingiye ku gukoresha ingufu zo mu cyiciro cya 3 nta mutwaro cyagabanutseho 30% ugereranije na verisiyo ishaje (GB6451-2015), naho imikorere y'ingufu zo mu cyiciro cya 1 yagabanutseho andi 10%; igihombo gishingiye ku gukoresha transformateur za 35kV zumutse (Icyiciro cya 3) cyagabanutseho 20% ugereranije n'ibipimo ngenderwaho by'inganda (NB/T31062-2014). Dukurikije ibipimo, transformateur nshya zose mu Bushinwa ziramutse zivuguruwe ziva kuri S11 zikajya kuri S20, imyuka ihumanya ikirere ishobora kugabanukaho toni miliyoni 55, bingana n'inshuro 2.8 z'ingufu za sitasiyo y'amashanyarazi ya Gezhouba Hydropower Station mu 2021.

Iri shyirwa mu bikorwa ry’ibipimo ngenderwaho ntiriteza imbere gusa impinduka mu nganda z’impinduka mu Bushinwa zigana ku musaruro mwiza no kugabanya karuboni, ahubwo rinatanga urwego rw’ingenzi rw’ingenzi mu mikoreshereze y’ingufu mu guhuza imiyoboro mishya y’ingufu ku isi.

1. Ikoreshwa rya Smart Grid na AI: Transformers za Solid-State (SSTs) ziba inkingi y'ingenzi y'ikinyagihumbi gikurikira​

Kubera ikwirakwira ry'ingufu za mudasobwa za AI (urugero, guhugura ChatGPT moderi nini zikoresha amashanyarazi angana n'ay'imodoka 3.000 za Tesla zigenda kilometero 320.000) no kwihutisha kubaka imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi, transformers gakondo ntizishobora guhaza ibyifuzo by'ubucucike bw'ingufu nyinshi n'amabwiriza ahindagurika. Transformers za Solid-state (SSTs), zifite ibyiza byo kuba nto, imikorere myiza, no gushyigikira imikorere y'ingufu z'inzira ebyiri, zabaye ikintu giherutse kwibandwaho mu bushakashatsi ku ikoranabuhanga no kwita ku isoko.

SST zikoresha ikoranabuhanga ryo guhindura amashanyarazi hakoreshejwe ikoranabuhanga rikoresha imbaraga nyinshi. Ugereranyije na transformers zisanzwe zo mu nganda, zigabanya ingano ya volteji ku kigero cya 50%-80% n'uburemere ku kigero cya 60%-80%, kandi zishobora kugera ku rwego rwa milisegonda rugenga amashanyarazi n'umusaruro uhoraho wa volteji, bigatuma zikoreshwa cyane cyane mu bihe nk'ibigo by'amakuru bya AI, umurongo mushya w'amashanyarazi, n'ibice bishya byo gusharija. Urugero, inyandiko nshya ya NVIDIA igaragaza SST nk'igisubizo cyiza cyo gutanga amashanyarazi aciriritse mu bigo by'amakuru, kandi ibigo nka Jinpan Technology byarangije gukora prototype ya SST kandi byohereje ingero muri NVIDIA.

Nubwo SST zikiri mu cyiciro cyo kugenzura imiterere/imigabane mito (biteganijwe ko zizagurishwa ku rwego runini kuva mu 2028 kugeza 2030), icyizere ku isoko kiri hejuru—Raporo y’ubushakashatsi bwa Guangda Securities igaragaza ko SST ziteganijwe kuba intambwe ikomeye mu mbogamizi z’ingufu ziterwa n’ibiziga bibiri bya "AI + ingufu nshya," aho ingano y’isoko izazamuka kuva kuri miliyari 6 z’amayuan mu 2024 ikagera kuri miliyari 26.4 z’amayuan mu 2027 (CAGR igera kuri 64%).

1. Ibura ry'Ibikoresho ku Isi n'Ibyiza by'Ubushinwa: Igenzura ryigenga ry'Inganda N'Uruganda Rwuzuye Riba Irushanwa Rikuru​

Ku isi yose, transformateur z’amashanyarazi aciriritse n’afite ingufu nyinshi zirimo kubura cyane ibikoresho: icyuho cy’ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika cyiyongereyeho 116% ugereranije no mu 2019, kuvugurura imiyoboro y’amashanyarazi mu Burayi biri kugenda buhoro buhoro bitewe n’ibura rya transformateur, kandi imishinga minini y’izuba mu Buhinde iracyakora mu gihe hagitegerejwe transformateur. Muri iki gihe, Ubushinwa, bufite 60% by’ubushobozi bwo gukora ku isi, bwabaye inyungu nini.

Ibyiza by'ingenzi by'Ubushinwa mu gukwirakwiza transfoma biri mu kugenzura byigenga mu nganda zose:

Ibikoresho by'ingenzi: Umusaruro w'icyuma cya silikoni (ibikoresho "by'umutima" bya transfoma) wageze kuri toni miliyoni 3.0325 (2024), inshuro eshanu ugereranyije n'u Buyapani n'inshuro umunani ugereranyije n'ugereranyije n'ugereranyije n'ugereranyije n'u Buyapani muri Amerika. Baosteel Group yubatse umurongo wonyine ku isi wo gukora icyuma cya silikoni gifite uburebure bwa mm 0.18, aho imikorere yayo ari yo yazamuye isi;

Ikoranabuhanga n'Ubushobozi: Itsinda ry'Ibikoresho by'Amashanyarazi rya China ryahuje ibigo nka XD, Baobian, na Shandong Electrical Engineering kugira ngo bishyireho ubushobozi bwose bwa "UHV + ingufu nshya". Ibigo byigenga nka Xinjiang Tebian na Jiangsu Huapeng ni byo biyoboye isi mu kohereza ibicuruzwa bishya mu mahanga bihindura ingufu;

Uburyo bwo gutanga ibicuruzwa neza: Igihe cyo gutanga ibicuruzwa mu Bushinwa (urugero, amezi 10 kuri transformers nini za UHV) ni gito cyane ugereranyije n'iy'i Burayi na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika (amezi arenga 18), kandi ibiciro biri hasi (ibicuruzwa bifite imiterere imwe ni kimwe cya kabiri cy'igiciro cy'iy'i Burayi na Amerika).

Kuva muri Mutarama kugeza muri Kanama 2025, agaciro k'ibicuruzwa bya transformer byoherezwa mu mahanga mu Bushinwa kageze kuri miliyari 29.711 z'amayuan, ubwiyongere bw'umwaka ku kigero cya 36.3%, isoko ry'i Burayi ryazamutseho 138%. Bamwe mu bakiriya biteguye kwishyura 20% by'ubwishingizi kugira ngo barebe ko ibicuruzwa byabo bitangwa.

1. Iterambere mu ikoranabuhanga no kuvugurura inganda: UHV n'ingufu z'umuyaga zo mu mazi nk'inzego z'ingenzi​

Vuba aha, ibigo by’Abashinwa byageze ku iterambere rikomeye mu ikoranabuhanga rya UHV n’ingufu z’umuyaga zo mu mazi n’ibindi bikoresho bihindura ingufu z’amashanyarazi aciriritse n’akomeye, biteza imbere iterambere ry’inganda:

Transformers za UHV: Transformers za ±800kV UHV DC za Shenbian Company zakoreshejwe mu mushinga wa Jinshang-Hubei UHV zongereye urwego rwo gukingira umuriro ku mpande zombi ku kigero cya 5%; Transformers za 1000kV UHV za Xidian Xibian zituma imishinga y'amashanyarazi akoresha amakara ikora ku gihe;

Transformers z'amashanyarazi zo mu mazi: Shenbian Company yatangije transformer ya mbere ku isi ya 20Hz ikoresha imbaraga z'umuyaga mu mazi, yahinduwe ku miyoboro y'amashanyarazi yoroshye, igabanya igihombo cyo kohereza ku kigero cya 15%-20%, kandi ikoreshwa mu ishami ry'umuyaga rya Huaene Yuhuan Phase II;

Transformers zigezweho: Isosiyete ya Shandong Electrical Engineering Equipment Equipment yateguye transformer ntoya ya 220kV ifite imigozi itatu, igabanya ikoreshwa ry'ibyuma binyuze mu kunoza imiterere y'ibikoresho (urugero, imiterere yo gukomeza plaque y'ikigega) kandi ikongera imikorere myiza ku kigero cya 35%, aho urwego rw'ingufu zikoreshwa neza rurenze amahame y'igihugu.

1. Ubukungu Buzenguruka no Kuvugurura Ibikoresho: Inzira Nshya yo Guhindura Ibidukikije​

Bitewe n’iterambere ry’ingamba za "karuboni ebyiri", kuvugurura transformateur byabaye ahantu hashya mu nganda. TBEA (Hunan) Energy Construction Co., Ltd. ikoresha "imyotsi y'ikoranabuhanga" (udupira tw’ubwenge) na "kuvugurura ingingo" (kuvugurura insulation ya coil, gukwirakwiza amavuta mu buryo bwimbitse) kugira ngo ihindure transformateur za 220kV zitagikoreshwa mo ibikoresho bifite ingufu zihagije kurusha ibipimo ngenderwaho by’igihugu bya Grade 1. Igiciro ni 60% gusa by’ibicuruzwa bishya, kandi icyuma kimwe cyavuguruwe gishobora kuzigama 70% by’ikiguzi cyo kugura no kugaruza igihe cy’agaciro cyo kubaka.

Ubu buryo ntibugabanya gusa ikiguzi cyo kuvugurura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi ahubwo bunagabanya imyanda y'umutungo—nk'uko bivugwa, kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere ituruka ku kigo cyo kuvugurura ubuhinzi bingana no gutera hegitari ibihumbi z'amashyamba, bihuye n'icyerekezo cy'iterambere ry'"ubukungu bushingiye ku ruziga."